These Numbers Should Terrify Democrats Ahead of the Midterms

With less than a month to go before the midterms, the questionable polls keep piling up. I’ve been saying for a while that I think the GOP will outperform the polls this year, and a fresh report from CNN backs that up.

According to CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten, there’s some incredibly good news for the GOP in both the short term and long term, which may matter more than the polls.

[snip]

“So, when you take a look at how people are actually registering, this is not polling data, compared to where we were eight years ago, Republicans are doing considerably better in what are the swing states, at least normally in presidential elections,” Enten said.

Berman pushed back with the obvious objection. That’s a comparison to 2018, and the polls have been drifting toward Democrats for the past two years. So have Democrats made up any of that ground since 2024?

[snip]

Think about that for a second. For two years, the media have told us that voters are sprinting back to the Democrat Party, and survey after survey supposedly proves it. Yet in the four states where it counts most, Republicans are gaining. Berman pointed out that Democrats have seen some upticks in recent months, and Enten agreed, with a caveat.

“There’s been some ticks up, but they, in no way, blows away the Republican gains,” he said.

[snip]

“The bottom line is this: Republicans, right now, are in a much stronger position than they have been, not just compared to eight years ago, but over the long term as well, the relative health of the Republican Party, at least in terms of party registration, is pretty gosh darn good relative to the Democrats,” Enten explained.

Florida shows where this kind of shift leads. Asked about the state’s upcoming races, Enten cited Kalshi prediction markets that give Sen. Ashley Moody (R-Fla.) a 91% chance of winning her Senate race and Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) a 76% chance in the contest for governor.

“I remember when Florida was a swing state,” Enten says.

[snip]

These voter registration trends defy the polls. Which do you trust more? A poll is a guess about who will show up, built on assumptions about what the electorate looks like. Registration is the electorate.

Of course, none of this means Republicans will win in November. But if there was ever a sign that the polls may be based on the assumptions, this is it.

(*) Full article: https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2026/10/07/these-numbers-should-terrify-democrats-ahead-of-the-midterms-n4958086